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Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-10-22T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3432/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-25T15:00Z (-4.0h, +4.0h)
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

Using the DBM (drag based model) and an estimated CME speed of about 800km/s at 20Rs (gamma=0.3x10^-7 km^-1; w=400km s^-1); we estimate a CME arrival at 1AU (date & time): 25-OCT-2013 at 15UT+/-4h and an impact speed at 1 AU: 500 km/s ±20km/s;
We note that this prediction is for the arrival of the flux rope (not for the shock).

Lead Time: 7.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2013-10-25T07:09Z

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